LONDON: Trying to predict which matches in a tournament will produce a shock result is a fool’s game. If the forecast is wrong, we will probably look like a fool. If a shock or surprise occurs, a retrospective analysis is made of why it was so surprising and unforeseen. This situation occurred in the 2024 Men’s T20 World Cup.
My reaction when I woke up in England to the news that Afghanistan had beaten Australia was shock. Why was I shocked and should this have been my first reaction? Maybe it’s because I predicted Australia would win the tournament. Perhaps it was because I underestimated Afghanistan.
In their previous match, the team lost to India by 47 runs after being bowled out by the West Indies by 104 runs. On that basis, Australia seemed to have the upper hand, given their streak of eight T20I wins in a row, their longest in the league.
Both of my fellow Arab News podcasters reported that one of the pitches in Kingstown, St. Vincent caused a significant spin and they wondered how Australia would cope with the quality spinners from Afghanistan. Influenced by reports from the field, Australia decided to pick an extra spinner who was economical but failed to score wickets. Afghanistan’s batting during the tournament has been uneven and has relied heavily on its opening bowlers, one of whom, Rahmanullah Gurbaz, is the tournament’s top scorer and the other, Ibrahim Zadran, not far behind.
The team also features the tournament’s leading wicket-taker, Fazalhaq Farooqi, who played for MI Emirates in ILT20 2024. Add to that captain Rashid Khan, one of the world’s leading spin bowlers with nearly 150 T20I wickets, and the team has a solid backbone. Support for this was not always consistent, but against Australia it showed in the form of Gulbadin Naib, whose medium pacer took four wickets in just 20 runs to cause the collapse of the Australian middle order.
In this spell, Naib took the wicket of Glenn Maxwell, who threatened to win the match for his team. Let’s think back to the Afghan players’ minds to November 7, 2023, when they reduced Australia to 91 for 7 in the 18th over, chasing 292. A win could have propelled Afghanistan to the semi-finals of the ODI World Cup.
But battling injuries, cramp, dehydration and exhaustion, Maxwell literally powered Australia to victory on his own, surviving several missed chances to score 201. The scars of that defeat will be deep for Afghanistan and memories will surely be brought back as Maxwell batted at a different level to his team-mates. This time the Afghan players held their nerve and Maxwell managed to take a good catch and paved the way for a 21-run victory, which they celebrated wildly.
Only one match against Bangladesh stood in the way of the semi-finals. Even skeptics were forced to admit that victory in Afghanistan would not be a shock. After a thrilling, rain-interrupted, low-scoring match, the Afghan team kept its nerve and won by five runs, although it was not without controversy.
In the 12th minute, when Bangladesh were two runs behind the converted target, the Afghanistan coach was seen on camera asking his players to slow down. Immediately, Naib, who had skidded, threw himself on the ground, apparently suffering from cramps. He was treated and removed from the field, after which it began to rain again. When play resumed, Naib scored his 15th over, taking a wicket, which he celebrated by running on the pitch.
Commentators were not impressed. Some felt the “spirit of cricket” was being questioned. Others called on the International Cricket Council to invoke punishment against Naib for “wasting time” under its Code of Conduct. These include a registration fee, suspension points and a five-run match penalty.
No action has been taken so far. The Afghanistan captain seemed irritated by Naib’s behavior, or maybe it was the coach’s instructions. He is Jonathan Trott, a South African-born cricketer who played 127 times for England. In the semi-final, he had to engineer the demise of cricket in the country where he was born. It didn’t go well.
On a poor pitch, Afghanistan were dismissed for 56 in 11.5 overs and South Africa won by nine wickets. Up until this match, Trott’s best players had given their all, and the supporting cast did so when necessary. Two of them, Naib and Mohammad Nabi, were members of the team that joined the 5th Division of the World Cricket League in June 2008. The team was quickly promoted to the 2nd Division, enabling it to participate in the 2011 ODI World Cup qualifiers. failed to do so, one-day international status was granted.
Since then, further development has been rewarded with full membership of the ICC in 2019. One of the requirements to be met is to have a funded women’s team with an existing career path structure, have participated in at least one ICC Women’s World Cup in the previous four years or be featured in in the ICC rankings table. This is not met.
The women’s team was formed in 2010, playing in only one tournament. In 2020, the Afghanistan Cricket Board awarded 25 central contracts, but the squad was disbanded following the Taliban’s occupation of the country in August 2021 and the subsequent ban on women’s sports. Many of the team’s players are believed to be from Australia.
The Taliban’s different policy towards the men’s team is that they recognize that cricket is the most popular sport in the country, with particular importance among Pashtuns. The team’s success provides legitimacy to the regime in the country. Other countries’ human rights concerns are ignored. So far, the ICC has embraced soft diplomacy. It’s hard to change that now the band is even more successful. If this were not the case, these issues would not be so visible. How they will play is unpredictable.
Those who failed to predict Afghanistan’s success looked like fools. As if further proof was needed, I again visited a website offering odds on which teams would reach the semi-finals ahead of the tournament. Interestingly, the most favored were India, South Africa, England and Afghanistan. Drawing attention to this website would eliminate any mention of shock and Afghanistan in the same sentence. Despite their semi-final defeat, the Afghanistan men’s team is currently a force that cannot be underestimated in the future.