NEW YORK CITY/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign and withdraw from the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, three Arab-American analysts say.
Biden, who endorsed Harris in his withdrawal announcement on Sunday, has been trailing former President Donald Trump in opinion polls, amid a growing Arab-American #AbandonBiden movement and broader calls for him to withdraw from the 2024 race after his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate in Atlanta.
What was supposed to be the coronation of the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19 has now become an open contest in which some 4,700 party delegates will vote by state for the candidate of their choice to challenge Trump, the GOP nominee.
Rana Abtar, a Washington, D.C. talk show host for Asharq News, expects Harris to become the Democratic nominee, although other candidates could be considered. However, she believes Democrats “need to show unity” if they want to win the November election.
“What we are seeing today is that Democrats are starting to support Harris, one by one,” he told Arab News. “There were some delegates in a couple of states who have already voted to support Kamala Harris. That means their votes will be reflected in the Democratic National Convention.
“The rest of the Democrats who have not yet supported Harris should fall into line soon. At some point, we will see all Democrats, or most Democrats, rally behind Harris. It is very important for Democrats to present a show of unity after the dilemma their party was facing after President Biden announced that he would not seek a second term.”
Biden's withdrawal from the race frees up his convention delegates from the nation's 50 states and provinces to endorse any candidate at the convention. Several alternative names have been floated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Noting that Harris is popular among African-American voters, a traditional pillar of Democratic Party support, Abtar said many still see her as part of the Biden administration’s policies that have fueled the #AbandonBiden movement, in which Arabs and Muslims have voted in key swing-state primaries for “uncommitted” or “no vote” options rather than for president.
“Harris is not that popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “A lot of Democrats are worried that her chances against Trump are the same as President Biden's chances against Trump. Of course, in the next few days we will see Harris go out, talk to voters, because in the past, in her role as vice president, she has not spoken directly to the American people on many occasions.
“Biden has given her the immigration issue, which in itself has put her in a very awkward position, especially given that the main attack by Republicans against Democrats is on immigration and border security.
“But I think the most important thing here is not Harris. It's who she chooses as her running mate because voters need enthusiasm. Democratic voters need enthusiasm to get out and vote.”
Abtar said that third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, are often seen as “election killjoys,” people who could steal votes from Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered quite high for an independent candidate and her voters could make a difference in the election season by taking votes away from … Trump or Harris … if she gets the official nomination,” Abtar said.
Any of the candidates currently being floated as Biden’s replacements could become a running mate, including Pritzker, a billionaire with presidential ambitions.
Amal Mudallali, a former ambassador to the United Nations and CEO of Bridges International Group, thinks Harris has a “perception problem.”
She told Arab News: “The perception is that she has not been a strong vice president, that she will not be a strong candidate and that she will not be able to defeat Trump.”
While Democrats appear to be moving quickly to support Harris, including an endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Mudallali remains cautious.
“It’s all up in the air because there are still some very powerful Democrats who are calling for an open convention where everyone can run, to see if they can get the strongest candidate in the Democratic Party to defeat Trump,” he said.
The impact of independent candidates in elections cannot be underestimated either, he added.
“In very close elections, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is a very close race, we are talking about a couple of thousand or a thousand votes, which could decide the success or failure of an election campaign,” Mudallali said.
“Let's say if Kennedy could get a lot of Democrat votes, that could hurt the Democrats even more and that would be a big problem for them.
“But so far we don't know who the Democratic Party nominee will be. If the individual is a very strong candidate, the party might be able to unite the anti-Trump constituency, which will overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party nominee. In that case, independents won't make a difference.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is “almost certain” to replace Biden as the nominee and has suggested that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate on the first “all-female ticket.”
He told Arab News: “Speculation is rife about who will be his vice presidential running mate, including a possible all-female candidacy if he chooses Whitmer. It is unprecedented and carries risks. But Whitmer could help deliver the key state of Michigan, and an all-female team could reenergize the currently largely demoralized Democratic base.”
He added: “Harris' approval ratings with the American public have never been high. But at this point, the decision of the Democratic Party and President Biden to put her forward is largely based on funding and finances. She's the only one who will qualify for all the money, the hundreds of millions of dollars, that has been raised so far. So her choice of running mate will also be critical in terms of reconnecting with that Democratic base and the overall likability of that Democratic ticket.”
Maksad believes that Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and speculation about Whitmer's addition to the list could have an impact on the strong Arab and Muslim vote in Michigan, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris duo in the Feb. 27 Democratic primary.
“Arab Americans are not monolithic,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities, spread across four key states. Michigan gets a lot of attention, but so do Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, where there are 100,000, they have strong feelings about the war in Gaza and that President Biden is not doing enough to stop the war. Reversing Biden opens up the possibility for the Democratic Party to make inroads again among Arab Americans in Michigan. And if the vice president (chosen) were to actually be governor of Michigan, that would give Democrats even more opportunities to make inroads and retake Michigan, as a key battleground state.”
