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PARIS: French voters will face a decisive choice on July 7 in the second round of early parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II or no majority at all.
Poll forecasts suggest the far-right National Rally has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain due to the complicated voting system.

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally edged him out, with an estimated one-third of the vote. The New Popular Front coalition, which includes the center-left, greens and far-left forces, came in second, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.
Here’s a closer look:
How it’s working?
The French system is complicated and disproportionate to nationwide party support. Legislators are elected by district.
More than 60 candidates who won at least 50 percent of the votes on Sunday were elected through direct elections.

Additionally, the top two candidates, as well as all other candidates who received the support of more than 12.5 percent of registered voters, qualify for the second round.

In many districts, three people made it to the second round, although some tactics to block far-right candidates have already been announced: the left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts when they come third in order to support other politicians opposed to the far-right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would step down before the second round to block the National Assembly.
This makes the result of the second round uncertain, even though polls show that the National Rally has a good chance of winning an absolute majority, or at least 289 of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two houses of the French parliament. He has the final say in the lawmaking process in the conservative-dominated Senate.
Macron’s presidential mandate runs until 2027 and has announced that he will not step down before the end of his term.
What is cohabitation?
If the National Assembly or a political force other than his centrist alliance wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from this new majority.
In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement policies that deviated from the president’s plan.

The modern French Republic has experienced cohabitation three times, the last under conservative president Jacques Chirac and socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin in 1997–2002.
The prime minister is responsible to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
“In the case of cohabitation, it is essentially the prime minister’s policy that is implemented,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.

French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before casting his vote at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France, June 30, 2024 (POOL/AFP)

The president is weakened internally during cohabitation, but still has some authority over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, as he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.
“The president can prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign government regulations or decrees,” Garrigues added.
“However, the prime minister has the right to submit these orders and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus ignoring the president’s reluctance,” he noted.
Who conducts defense and foreign policy?
During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy had been considered an informal “reserved area” for the president, who usually managed to reach a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.
However, the current views of the far-right and left-wing coalition on these issues differ radically from Macron’s approach and are likely to become a subject of tension during a potential coalition.
According to the constitution, “the president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but it is the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.
“Also in the field of diplomacy, the president’s scope for action is significantly limited,” Garrigues added.

Jordan Bardella, president of the far-right French National Rally party, reacts on stage after the announcement of partial results of the first round of France’s early general elections in Paris on June 30, 2024. (REUTERS)

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats, said he intended to “be a prime minister who lives in a cohabiting relationship, respects the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but is uncompromising in the policies we will implement.”
Bardella said that if he became prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility that Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of striking targets in Russia itself.
What happens if there is no majority?
The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly — as has been the case with Macron’s centrist alliance since 2022.
However, the National Assembly has already said it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a no-confidence vote if other political parties unite.
The president could attempt to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, which seems unlikely due to political differences.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he hoped on Sunday he could gather enough centrist lawmakers to build “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “republican forces,” which could include both centre-left and centre-right forces.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal delivers a speech in the courtyard of the prime minister’s residence in Paris, June 30, 2024. (AP)

Experts say another complicated option would be to appoint a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still need to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would likely focus mainly on day-to-day business rather than implementing major reforms.
Garrigues said that if political talks take too long due to the summer holidays and the July 26-August 11 Paris Olympics, a “transition period” cannot be ruled out during which Macron’s centrist government “will continue to deal with current issues.” matters”, pending further decisions.
“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, the Constitution of the Fifth Republic seems flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert who teaches at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “The institutions are more solid than they seem, even in the face of this experimental exercise.”
“However, there remains one unknown in the equation: society’s ability to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.

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