ARIS: France’s prime minister urged voters on Wednesday to form a united front to block the far-right in parliamentary elections, warning that Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration party was close to winning an outright majority.
With four days to go before the second round of elections, France’s political future remains uncertain as the far-right National Rally (RN) party makes its first bid to seize power.
The RN dominated the first round of voting, giving Le Pen’s party the prospect of forming a government, while her protégé Jordan Bardella, 28, took over as prime minister in a tense “cohabitation” with centrist President Emmanuel Macron.
However, a Toluna Harris Interactive poll released on Wednesday predicted that the RN would win just 190 to 220 seats in the 577-seat parliament, far short of the 289 seats the far-right needs to secure an absolute majority and form a government on its own.
The left-wing coalition called the New Popular Front was expected to win between 159 and 183 seats in parliament, while the centrist presidential camp was expected to win between 110 and 135.
The new poll forecast comes after more than 200 left-wing and centrist candidates withdrew from the race for seats in the second round of the election in a bid to prevent RN from winning seats.
While the formation of the so-called “Republican Front” appears to have been a success for the government overall, the key question now is whether voters will respond to calls to block the RN.
“There is one bloc that is capable of obtaining an absolute majority and it is the far right,” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal told France Inter radio.
“On Sunday evening, the stakes in the second round will be to do everything possible to prevent the far right from gaining an absolute majority,” he said.
“It is unpleasant for many French people to have to block (the National Council)… by casting a vote they did not want,” he added, but “it is our duty.”
In one extreme example of the united front in action, a far-left candidate in a northern French constituency withdrew, leading to a bitter rivalry between the far right and hardline Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, a figure long hated by some on the left.
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, still an influential voice in the pro-Macron camp, told TF1 television that he would vote for the Communist candidate to contain the far-right in his constituency.
Le Pen said the RN would attempt to form a government if it won more than 270 seats, while also gaining the support of other MPs.
London-based risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said the RN’s hopes of winning an outright majority had been “weakened” by the front against the far-right.
But it added: “Sunday is almost a completely new election, with its own dynamics. Turnout will be key.”
Janine Mossuz-Lavau, retired research director at the Cevipof institute in Paris, said voters “will do whatever they like” regardless of politicians’ appeals, and turnout could be lower than the 66.7 percent in the first round.
“There are those who will say: ‘I will not choose between cholera and the plague and I will not vote,'” she told AFP.
One option that has attracted increasing media attention is the possibility that, instead of a far-right government, France could be governed by a broad coalition of pro-Macron centrists, traditional right-wingers, socialists and Greens.
Philippe said he would support a new parliamentary majority after the election that could include “the conservative right to the social democrats” but would not include the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.
His comments were echoed by Xavier Bertrand, a right-wing heavyweight who served as a minister under President Nicolas Sarkozy. He called for a “transitional government” focused on “rebuilding our country.”
Le Pen, meanwhile, condemned tactical moves and talk of alliances.
“The political class is creating an increasingly grotesque image of itself,” she wrote on portal X.
Amid controversy surrounding some of the RN candidates, including one who withdrew after a photo of herself wearing a Nazi Luftwaffe cap was published, Bardella admitted there might be some “black sheep” but stressed that he was not worried about it.
Macron has kept his distance from the final phase of voting, which could reveal the outcome of his electoral game that has stunned even his closest aides.
He has not spoken publicly since last Thursday’s EU summit.
As one of the participants in the government meeting told AFP, he said there was “no doubt” that the coalition after the elections could include LFI.