PARIS: French voters will face a decisive choice on July 7 in the second round of early parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II or no majority at all.
Forecasts by polling agencies indicate that the far-right National Assembly has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the result remains uncertain due to the complicated voting system.
In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally won with an estimated one-third of the vote. The New Popular Front coalition, which includes centre-left, green and radical left forces, came in second, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.
Here’s a closer look:
How it’s working?
The French system is complicated and disproportionate to national party support. Lawmakers are elected by district.
More than 60 candidates who won at least 50 percent of Sunday’s votes were elected in direct elections.
Additionally, the top two candidates qualify for the second round, as well as all other candidates who receive the support of more than 12.5 percent of registered voters.
In many districts, three candidates advanced to the second round, although some tactics have already been announced to block far-right candidates: the left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts when they come in third to support other politicians opposed to the far-right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would drop out before the run-off in order to block the National Assembly.
This makes the result of the second round uncertain, even though polls show that the National Rally has a good chance of winning an absolute majority, or at least 289 of the 577 seats.
The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two houses of the French parliament. He has the final say in the lawmaking process in the conservative-dominated Senate.
Macron is president until 2027 and has said he will not step down before the end of his term.
What is cohabitation?
If the National Assembly or a political force other than his centrist alliance wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from this new majority.
In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement a policy that would differ from the president’s plan.
The modern French Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last under conservative president Jacques Chirac with socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin from 1997–2002.
The prime minister is responsible to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
“In the case of cohabitation, it is essentially the prime minister’s policy that is implemented,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.
French President Emmanuel Macron leaves a polling station before casting his vote at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France, June 30, 2024. (POOL/AFP)
The president is weakened internally during cohabitation, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.
“The president can prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign government regulations or decrees,” Garrigues added.
“However, the Prime Minister has the right to submit these regulations and decrees to a vote by the National Assembly, thus overcoming the president’s reluctance,” he noted.
Who conducts defense and foreign policy?
During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy had been considered an informal “reserved area” for the president, who usually managed to reach a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.
Today, however, the views of both the far-right and left-wing coalitions in these areas are radically different from Macron’s and would likely be the subject of tensions during a potential cohabitation.
Under the constitution, although “the president is the head of the military, the prime minister has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.
“Also in the diplomatic field, the president’s scope of action is significantly limited,” Garrigues added.
Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right National Rally party, reacts on stage after the partial results of the first round of the early French general elections to be held in Paris on June 30, 2024 (REUTERS)
Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats in parliament, said he intended to “be a cohabiting prime minister, respectful of the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but uncompromising on the policies we will implement”.
Bardella said that if he became prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine – something Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse to deliver French long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia itself.
What happens if there is no majority?
The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group that has the most seats in the National Assembly – as has been the case with Macron’s own centrist alliance since 2022.
However, the National Assembly has already said it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a no-confidence vote if other political parties merge.
The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, but that seems unlikely given the political divergences.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal hoped to bring together enough centrist lawmakers on Sunday to build a “majority of projects and ideas” along with other “republican forces,” which could include center-left and center-right forces.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal delivers a speech in the courtyard of the prime minister’s residence in Paris, June 30, 2024. (AP)
Experts say another complicated option would be to establish a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still need to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would likely be concerned mainly with day-to-day matters rather than implementing major reforms.
Garrigues said that if political talks drag on too long due to the summer holidays and the Paris Olympics, which will take place from July 26 to August 11, a “transitional period” could not be ruled out in which Macron’s centrist government would “continue to deal with current issues” while waiting for further decisions.
“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, the Constitution of the Fifth Republic seems flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert who teaches at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “The institutions are more solid than they seem, even in the face of this experimental exercise.”
“But there remains one unknown in this equation: society’s ability to accept this situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.