PARIS: French people vote on Sunday in a high-stakes early parliamentary election that could change France’s trajectory and send Marine Le Pen’s far-right party to power for the first time in history.
As Russia’s war with Ukraine continues into its third year and energy and food prices rise significantly, support for the anti-immigration and Eurosceptic National Rally (RN) party has surged despite President Emmanuel Macron’s promises not to let it grow.
Polling stations across mainland France open at 8:00 a.m. (06:00 GMT) during the first round of elections and close 12 hours later, followed immediately by forecasts that usually predict the result with some accuracy.
Voters in France’s overseas territories around the world cast their ballots early over the weekend. Some 49 million French people are eligible to vote.
The elections for the 577 seats in the National Assembly are held in two rounds. The shape of the new parliament will become clear after the second round, a week later, on July 7.
Most polls show the National Assembly party is on track to win the most seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, although it is unclear whether the party will win an absolute majority.
Turnout is expected to be high, with final opinion polls showing RN taking between 35 and 37 percent of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front alliance will secure 27.5-29 percent and Macron’s centrist camp 20-21 percent.
If the RN wins an absolute majority, RN party leader Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old Le Pen protégé with no governing experience, could become prime minister in a tense “cohabitation” with Macron.
Macron plans to convene a cabinet meeting on Monday to decide on further action, government sources told AFP.
France is heading towards a year of political chaos and turmoil due to the suspension of the National Assembly, said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy.
“There has been no precedent for such an impasse in recent French politics,” Rahman said.
Macron’s decision to call early elections after the RN’s strong performance in this month’s European Parliament elections surprised friends and foes alike and created uncertainty in Europe’s second-largest economy.
Data released on Friday showed that in June, the Paris stock exchange recorded its biggest monthly decline in two years, falling 6.4%.
The French daily Le Monde wrote in its editorial that the time has come to mobilize against the far right.
“To give him any power is simply to take the risk that everything that has been built and conquered over more than two and a half centuries will be gradually destroyed,” he said.
On Saturday, several activists of the feminist collective Femen, dressed as cleaning women, demonstrated with bare breasts in the Trocadero in Paris, chanting slogans against the far right. Armed with mops and buckets, they protested.
Separately, thousands of people took part in an LGBT Pride march in Paris, some of them carrying banners targeting the far right.
“I think it’s even more important now to fight hatred in general, in all its forms,” said 19-year-old student Themis Hallin-Mallet.
Many pointed to an increase in hate speech, intolerance and racism during the campaign. In recent days, a video of two RN supporters verbally attacking a black woman has gone viral.
Macron condemned “racism and anti-Semitism.”
Macron clearly hoped to surprise political opponents by presenting voters with a key choice about France’s future, but observers say he may have lost.
Support for Macron’s centrist camp fell while leftist parties put aside their differences and formed the New Popular Front, a nod to the alliance founded in 1936 to fight fascism.
Analysts say Le Pen’s years of efforts to clean up the image of the party she co-founded as a former Waffen SS member have paid off, with the party promising to boost purchasing power, curb immigration and improve law and order.
“Victory is within reach, so let’s seize this historic opportunity, let’s get out and vote!” Le Pen wrote on social media platform X on Friday.
Under Macron, France has become one of Ukraine’s main Western allies since the Russian invasion in 2022.
Le Pen and Bardella, however, said they would limit France’s support for Ukraine, ruling out sending ground troops and long-range missiles.
The fearless Macron stuck to his decision to call elections, while warning voters that a victory for the far right or far left could trigger a “civil war.”
He stated that he intends to continue his second term in office until 2027, regardless of which party wins.
