ATHENS/QAMISHLI, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have met periodically in Moscow for Russian-mediated talks. But those meetings have failed to thaw their icy relations.
The situation is different, however, now that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced his willingness to restore formal ties with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
Earlier this month he said he could invite Assad to Turkey “at any time,” to which the Syrian leader responded that any meeting would depend on the “content.”
Ankara and Damascus severed diplomatic relations in 2011 following the outbreak of the civil war in Syria. Since then, relations have remained hostile, particularly because Turkey continues to support armed groups resisting the Assad regime.
Since the civil war broke out in 2011, Turkiye has supported Syria's armed factions in their fight against the regime of left-wing President Bashar Assad. AFP
What, then, is the motivation for changing course now? And what are the likely consequences of normalizing relations between Turkey and Syria?
Syrian political writer and researcher Shoresh Darwish believes that President Erdogan is pursuing normalization for two reasons. “The first is to prepare for the possibility of a new American administration led by Donald Trump, which means the possibility of a return to the policy of (US) withdrawal from Syria,” he told Arab News.
“Erdogan will therefore have to collaborate with Assad and Russia.”
The second reason, Darwish says, is Erdogan’s desire to get closer to the Syrian regime’s ally, Russia, after Turkey’s drift toward the United States following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Indeed, as a NATO member, the conflict has complicated Turkey’s normally balanced approach to its ties with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara's cooperation with Moscow is difficult in terms of the Ukrainian issue,” Darwish said. “As a result of significant Western interference in this issue, their cooperation in Syria represents a rallying point through which Erdogan wants to highlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow's interests in the Middle East.”
Those in opposition-controlled, Turkiye-backed northwest Syria consider an Ankara-Damascus rapprochement a betrayal.
During one of several protests in Idlib since early July, demonstrators held signs in Arabic that read: “If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, told Arab News: “Western Syria, Idlib, Aleppo countryside and all areas belonging to the opposition firmly reject this behavior because it is only in the interest of the Syrian regime.
“The Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in their revolution demanding freedom, dignity and the building of a civil and democratic state for all Syrians. This can only be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime represented by Bashar Assad. They still cling to this principle and these slogans and cannot abandon them.”
Even those who live in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which holds much of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River, are wary of the consequences of normalization.
“There is fear among the population that reconciliation could be a prelude to the punishment of the Syrian Kurds for their political choices,” Omar said.
Incursions into Syria from 2016 to 2019 saw Turkey take control of several cities, many of which were previously under AANES control.
Turkiye's justification for its 2018 and 2019 incursions and continued presence on Syrian soil was to establish a “safe zone” between itself and the AANES armed forces, the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Turkiye considers the SDF to be the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a group that has been at odds with the Turkish state since the 1980s.
“Of course, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal that Erdogan wants to make with Assad,” Darwish said. “This issue makes the Syrian Kurds nervous, who see Turkey as willing to do anything to harm them and their experience of self-government.”
Darwish says the Syrian Kurds would accept reconciliation on three conditions. First, they would like Turkey to remove its troops from Afrin and Ras Al-Ain. Second, an end to Turkish attacks on AANES areas. And third, a guarantee from the Assad regime “that the Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural and administrative rights.”
But how likely is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus? Not very likely, according to conflict analyst and UNHRC delegate Thoreau Redcrow. “I find the prospects of a detente between Erdogan and Assad very unlikely,” he told Arab News.
“Historically, Turkey's ideas of 'normalization' with Syria amount to a one-way policy of influence that benefits Ankara. In this agreement, Turkey continues to occupy Hatay (Liwa Iskenderun), which it seized from Syria in 1938, and makes demands for military incursion into its sovereignty, as with the Adana agreement in 1998, but gives nothing in return.”
Assad has made it clear in public statements that a meeting between him and Erdogan would only happen on the condition of a Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory. Redcrow believes that Turkiye has no intention of leaving.
“I can't imagine Damascus being interested in being manipulated for a photo opportunity,” he said. “The Syrian government is much more proud than some of the other regional players who are happy to be one of Turkey's 'neo-Ottoman vilayets.'”
Erdogan may try to capitalize on the trend toward normalization among Arab countries, which began in earnest with Syria's reintegration into the Arab League last year. European states and the United States, however, remain divided.
“While Germany, France, Italy and the UK in particular are more focused on how Turkey can control the gateway to Europe and act as a 'continental bouncer' for refugees from the Middle East and West Asia, the US is more focused on denying Russia and Iran full access to all of Syria, again for strategic reasons, such as access to the Mediterranean Sea and the 'Shia land bridge' from Tehran to Beirut,” Redcrow said.
“The current status quo is much more advantageous to Washington than any reconciliation, as it would also jeopardize the northeastern portions of Syria, where the US military is embedded with its most reliable military partners against Daesh in the SDF. Thus, Turkey would not be given any kind of green light to jeopardize American interests.”
In February, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a July 12 post on the social media platform X, the bill’s author, Representative Joe Wilson, expressed his disappointment with Erdogan’s calls for normalization, comparing it to “normalizing with death itself.”
Even though the chances of reconciliation succeeding are slim at this point, the approximately 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey also view rumors of normalization with fear and dread.
“People are very afraid,” Amal Hayat, a Syrian mother of five living in southeastern Turkey, told Arab News. “Since the rumors (of reconciliation) started, many people don't even leave their homes. Even if they are beaten by their bosses at work, they are afraid to say anything for fear of being deported.”
According to Human Rights Watch, Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023.
“Forced repatriation would affect us greatly,” Hayat said. “For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband could be arrested by the regime. Or if a man is deported to Syria and his wife and children remain in Turkey, how will they manage? It's difficult. Here, our children can study. They have stability and security.”
Fears of deportation have been compounded by waves of violence against Syrian refugees that have swept southern Turkey in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of the central province of Kayseri attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey is partly due to economic problems: Turks see underpaid or even unpaid Syrians as a threat to their employment prospects.
“The Turks are very happy that we are coming home,” Hayat said. “For them, it is not soon enough. We are all living under a high level of stress. We are just praying that (Assad and Erdogan) do not reconcile.”
